Macro Intelligence
The regime layer that gates every decision downstream.
Regime
Late-Cycle Tightening
Liquidity is loose, growth is slowing, the yield curve is flat, risk appetite reads risk neutral, and flows are mixed. Rates are restrictive and growth is cooling — favor quality largecap, defensive sectors, and keep a cash cushion.
Liquidity & Monetary Policy
How much money is available, and at what price.
3.63%
+0.00% (+0.00%)
Fed Funds Rate
The world's price of money. Every basis point transmits everywhere.
Learn →5.58%
+0.86% (+18.13%)
US M2 YoY
How much money exists in the US system. Rising = liquidity flooding, falling = draining.
Learn →5.25%
+0.00% (+0.00%)
RBI Repo Rate
India's price of money. Sets NIM for banks and cost of capital for corporates.
$675.16
+$0.00 (+0.00%)
RBI FX Reserves
India's shock absorber. $650bn+ is comfort, falling fast is stress signal.
₹4,82,130 Cr
+₹0 Cr (+0.00%)
RBI Systemic Liquidity
Surplus = accommodative, deficit = tight. Impacts every rate in India.
Growth & Inflation
Whether the economy is expanding, and whether prices are keeping pace.
3.46%
-0.70% (-16.87%)
US CPI YoY
Fed's mandate. Above 3% = hawkish, below 2% = dovish tilt.
2.57%
-0.26% (-9.11%)
US Core CPI YoY
The sticky part of inflation. What Fed actually watches.
2.10%
+1.60% (+320.00%)
US Real GDP QoQ
Global demand pulse. Above 2.5% strong, below 1% weak.
US ISM Manufacturing
Awaiting manual update — connect via admin panel.
Leading indicator. Above 50 expansion, below 50 contraction.
US ISM Services
Awaiting manual update — connect via admin panel.
US is 70% services. This matters more than mfg for GDP.
57
—
US Non-Farm Payrolls
Monthly jobs added. 200k+ strong, negative = recession.
4.20%
-0.10% (-2.33%)
US Unemployment
Fed's dual mandate half. Below 4% is tight labor market.
4.38%
+0.00% (+0.00%)
India CPI YoY
RBI's target: 4% ±2%. Above 6% = hawkish MPC coming.
9.87%
+0.00% (+0.00%)
India WPI YoY
Producer-side inflation. Leads CPI by 3-6 months.
5.10%
+0.00% (+0.00%)
India IIP YoY
Industrial production. Manufacturing health check.
7.80%
+0.00% (+0.00%)
India Real GDP YoY
The number. Above 7% = strong, below 5% = concerning.
59.1
+0.0 (+0.00%)
India PMI Manufacturing
Above 55 = strong expansion, 50 = flat, below 47 = worrying.
57.4
+0.0 (+0.00%)
India PMI Services
Services = 55% of India GDP. Track this.
Rates & Yield Curve
What the bond market is pricing in — and warning about.
6.79%
+0.00% (+0.00%)
India 10Y G-Sec
India's borrowing cost. Every 25bps = 20bps NBFC funding change.
268 bps
-1 bps (-0.37%)
US HY Credit Spread
Recession alarm. Above 700bps = distress, above 900 = crisis.
Learn →78 bps
+0 bps (+0.00%)
US IG Credit Spread
Investment grade stress signal. Rising = tightening conditions.
Learn →Risk & Currency
How nervous markets are, and where capital is fleeing to or from.
₹96.55
-₹0.01 (-0.01%)
USD/INR
Rupee strength — FII flows + trade balance + DXY combined.
1.1391
-0.0021 (-0.18%)
EUR/USD
Dollar's counterweight. Falls when dollar strong.
6.7611
-0.0114 (-0.17%)
USD/CNY
Chinese yuan devaluation risk. Above 7.3 = signal to watch.
163.76
+0.68 (+0.42%)
USD/JPY
Global carry trade barometer. Sharp moves = carry unwind risk.
18.78
+0.08 (+0.43%)
US VIX
Wall Street fear. Below 15 complacent, above 25 fear, above 35 panic.
14.03
+0.55 (+4.08%)
India VIX
Nifty options implied vol. Below 12 complacent, above 18 stressed.
$4,063.70
+$17.10 (+0.42%)
Gold
Debasement hedge. Rises when real rates fall.
$58.74
+$0.94 (+1.63%)
Silver
Gold's leveraged cousin. Industrial + monetary hybrid.
$91.98
-$8.71 (-8.65%)
Brent Crude
Global growth pulse + India CAD headache.
44.18
—
Gold/Oil Ratio
Above 20 = recession risk. Below 15 = growth environment.
Flows & Positioning
Who's actually buying — and what everyone else is watching trade.
23,767.45
-102.15 (-0.43%)
Nifty 50
India's benchmark.
22,685.25
-20.00 (-0.09%)
Nifty Midcap 150
Midcap risk-on gauge.
17,601.20
-50.05 (-0.28%)
Nifty Smallcap 250
Smallcap breadth.
56,693.50
+101.50 (+0.18%)
Nifty Bank
Financial sector barometer.
7,408.30
-90.66 (-1.21%)
S&P 500
US equity benchmark.
25,137.69
-553.21 (-2.15%)
NASDAQ
US tech proxy.
64.60
-0.39 (-0.60%)
Emerging Markets ETF
Global EM risk appetite.
FII Cash Flow
Awaiting manual update — connect via admin panel.
Daily foreign flows into Indian equities.
DII Cash Flow
Awaiting manual update — connect via admin panel.
Domestic institutional flows.
Data as of 24 July 2026, refreshed daily after market close (16:00 IST). Sources: FRED, Yahoo Finance, RBI, NSDL.
Next 14 Days
| Date | Event | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul | Fed FOMCFOMC meeting begins (decision July 29) | |
| 29 Jul | Fed FOMCFOMC rate decision + press conference | |
| 1 Aug | PMI ReleaseIndia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July, est. release date) | |
| 1 Aug | PMI ReleaseUS ISM Manufacturing PMI (July, est. release date) | |
| 3 Aug | RBI MPCRBI MPC meeting begins | |
| 5 Aug | RBI MPCRBI MPC rate decision | |
| 5 Aug | PMI ReleaseIndia S&P Global Services PMI (July, est. release date) | |
| 7 Aug | US NFPUS Non-Farm Payrolls (July, first Friday) | |
| 12 Aug | US CPIUS CPI (July 2026) — confirmed BLS release date | |
| 12 Aug | India CPIIndia CPI (July, est. release date) | |
| 31 Aug | India GDPIndia Q1 FY27 GDP (Apr-Jun 2026) — confirmed PIB release date | |
| 15 Sept | Fed FOMCFOMC meeting begins (decision Sep 16, includes Summary of Economic Projections) |
News & Geopolitical Feed
Top Gaines & Losers on 24 July: Syrma SGS Tech, HFCL, Swiggy, Eternal, Hero MotoCorp among top losers
Cube Highways Trust InvIT IPO Day 3: Issue subscribed 1.67x so far. Check GMP, issue details, review
Indian markets remain resilient despite student protests, but risks remain
IndiGo shares extend losses for third straight day after Q1 miss; down 9% in July
Sustained oil prices may pressure Indian equity market - News Arena India
Hindustan Zinc Q1 results 2026: Net profit of PSU stock more than doubles to ₹5,469 crore, revenue surges 72%
Expert view: Nifty 50 may scale a new high by the end of 2026, says MD, CEO of SBI Securities
Shriram Finance Q1 results: Net profit jumps 60% YoY to ₹3,447 crore
IndiGo faces rough weather in Q1, hit by skyrocketing fuel prices
Penny stock under Re 1: NBFC share jumps 4% depite stock market sell-off
Small-cap AI stock under ₹50 hits upper circuit despite weak trends on Dalal Street
Crude oil prices back at $100: Can it hit the Indian economy, corporate earnings, and delay stock market recovery?
Crude oil prices back at $100: Can it hit the Indian economy, corporate earnings, and delay stock market recovery? - livemint.com
Indiabulls share price jumps despite stock market crash; here's why
Swiggy share price tumbles over 7%, nears record low. Here's why
Retail, HNI F&O bets hit by West Asia flare-up
Caliber Mining shares slip over 3% after decent debut. Should you buy, sell or hold?
HDFC Bank shares fall as 3 US law firms launch probe over alleged federal law violations
Infosys' weak Q1 raises the risk of another year of lagging peers
Silverstorm Parks and Resorts IPO: GMP, subscription status, price band, other details of BSE SME IPO in 10 key points
Connecting the Dots
The five domains transmit into each other, and then into sectors. Liquidity sets the price of money — when the Fed or RBI tightens, growth cools with a lag, which shows up in inflation and PMI prints. The bond market prices all of this in advance: a flattening or inverting curve is the rates domain warning that liquidity has gone too tight for growth to absorb. Risk and currency react to both — a stronger dollar (DXY) drains liquidity from emerging markets, pressures the rupee, and raises volatility, which is exactly when FIIs pull back and DIIs have to absorb the selling. That last leg — flows — is where it becomes visible in sectors: financials lead when liquidity is loose and the curve is steep, defensives lead when the curve is inverted and risk is off. Reading the five domains together, in this order, is how sector rotation gets anticipated instead of chased.
Learn how this connects to sector rotation →