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Today's regime: Late-Cycle Tightening · Nifty 50 23,767 · India VIX 14.03
Late-Cycle Tightening
Liquidity is loose, growth is slowing, the yield curve is flat, risk appetite reads risk neutral, and flows are mixed. Rates are restrictive and growth is cooling — favor quality largecap, defensive sectors, and keep a cash cushion.
As of 24 July 2026 · Auto-refresh daily
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From the masterclass
SECTION 7 — SECTOR CYCLES & HISTORICAL BEHAVIOUR Three Complete NBFC Cycles — Triggers, Inflection Points, Valuations & Pattern Recognition The PM's framing: NBFC cycles are unlike any other sector's cycles in Indian equity markets — for two reasons that must be internalised before studying the history. First, NBFC cycles compress time. The distance between peak optimism and existential crisis for an NBFC is measured in months, not years. IL&FS went from AAA to default in 90 days. DHFL went from "growing HFC" to "fraud disclosed" in 5 months. The speed compression means the historical cycle analysis must be studied at weekly granularity during crisis phases — quarterly analysis misses the critical inflection points. Second, NBFC cycles are not monolithic. The same credit event that...
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